2018年全年电影目录(AEJ: Economic Policy 2018年5月期目录)

1.Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production

劳拉阿尔法罗和玛吉陈

2.Fiscal Centralization: Theory and Evidence from the Great Depression

丹尼尔科恩-皮兰尼和迈克尔伍尔利

3.How Do Changes in Housing Voucher Design Affect Rent and Neighborhood Quality?

罗伯特科林斯和彼得加农

4.The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions

哈里森费尔和丹尼尔t卡法恩

5.Immigration, Employment Opportunities, andCriminal Behavior

马修弗里德曼、艾米丽欧文斯和莎拉博恩

6.A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory

卡米尔兰迪斯、帕斯卡尔米歇尔拉特和埃马纽埃尔萨伊兹

7.A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications

卡米尔兰迪斯、帕斯卡尔米歇尔拉特和埃马纽埃尔萨伊兹

8.Changing How Literacy Is Taught: Evidence on Synthetic Phonics

斯蒂芬麦金、桑德拉麦克纳利和玛蒂娜维亚伦戈

9.Cash-on-Hand and College Enrollment: Evidence from Population Tax Data and the Earned Income Tax Credit

戴马诺里和尼科尔斯图尔纳

10.The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence from the DPAD

埃里克奥恩

每篇文章的摘要如下：

1.Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production

劳拉阿尔法罗和玛吉陈

Abstract: Assessing productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic ofeconomic research and policy debate. Positive productivity gains are often attributed to productivity spillovers; however, an alternative, much less emphasized channel is selection and market reallocation, whereby competition leads to factor and revenue reallocation within and between domestic firms and exits of the least productive firms. We investigate the roles of these different mechanisms in determining aggregate-productivity gains using aunifying framework that explores the mechanisms' distinct predictions on the distributions of domestic firms: within-firm productivity improvement shifts rightward or reshapes the productivity distribution, while selection and market reallocation move the revenue and employment distributions leftward and raise left truncations. Using a rich cross-country firm-level panel dataset, we find significant evidence of both mechanisms and effects of competition in product, technology, and labor space. However, selection and market reallocation account for the majority of aggregate-productivity gains, suggesting ignoring this channel could lead to substantial bias in understanding the nature of productivity gains from multinational production.

2.Fiscal Centralization: Theory and Evidence from the Great Depression

丹尼尔科恩-皮兰尼和迈克尔伍尔利

Abstract:The Great Depression produced a profound and lasting influence on the structureof US government. This paper studies theoretically and empirically the increased centralization of revenues and expenditures by the states relative tolocal governments during this period. A model of property and sales taxation and tax delinquency is introduced. In the model, the income decline of the Depression causes a rise in property tax delinquency and leads to a shift toward sales taxation and fiscal centralization by the states. Empirical evidence based on cross-state variation in the severity of the Depression is consistent with the model's key predictions.

3.How Do Changes in Housing Voucher Design Affect Rent and Neighborhood Quality?

罗伯特科林斯和彼得加农

Abstract: US housing voucher holders pay their landlord a fraction of household income and the government pays the rest, up to a rent ceiling. We study how two types of changes to the rent ceiling affect landlords and tenants. A policy that makes vouchers more generous across a metro area benefits landlords through increased rents, with minimal impact on neighborhood and unit quality. A second policy that indexes rent ceilings to neighborhood rents leads voucher holders to move into higher quality neighborhoods with lower crime, poverty, and unemployment.

4.The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions

哈里森费尔和丹尼尔t卡法恩

Abstract: Since2007, US coal-fired electricity generation has declined by a stunning 25percent. Detailed daily unit-level data is used to examine the joint impact of natural gas prices and wind generation on coal-fired generation and emissions,with a focus on the interaction between gas prices and wind. This interactionis found to be significant. Marginal responses of coal-fired generation tonatural gas prices (wind) in 2013 were larger, sometimes much larger, than the counterfactual with 2008 wind generation (gas prices). Additionally, these factors jointly account for the vast majority of the observed decline ingeneration and emissions.

5.Immigration, Employment Opportunities, and Criminal Behavior

马修弗里德曼、艾米丽欧文斯和莎拉博恩

Abstract:We take advantage of provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of1986 (IRCA), which granted legal resident status to long-time unauthorized residents but created new obstacles to employment for more recent immigrants,to explore how employment opportunities affect criminal behavior. Exploiting administrative data on the criminal justice involvement of individuals in San Antonio, Texas and using a triple-differences strategy, we find evidence of anincrease in felony charges filed against residents most likely to be negatively affected by IRCA's employment regulations. Our results suggest a strong relationship between access to legal jobs and criminal behavior.

6.A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory

卡米尔兰迪斯、帕斯卡尔米歇尔拉特和埃马纽埃尔萨伊兹

Abstract:This paper develops a theory of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in matchingmodels. The optimal UI replacement rate is the conventional Baily-Chetty replacement rate, which solves the tradeoff between insurance and job-search incentives,plus a correction term, which is positive when an increase in UI pushes thelabor market tightness toward its efficient level. In matching models, mostwage mechanisms do not ensure efficiency, so tightness is generallyinefficient. The effect of UI on tightness depends on the model: increasing UImay raise tightness by alleviating the rat race for jobs or lower tightness by increasing wages through bargaining.

7.A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications

卡米尔兰迪斯、帕斯卡尔米歇尔拉特和埃马纽埃尔萨伊兹

Abstract:In the United States, unemployment insurance (UI) is more generous when unemployment is high. This paper examines whether this policy is desirable. Theoptimal UI replacement rate is the Baily-Chetty replacement rate plus acorrection term measuring the effect of UI on welfare through labor market tightness. Empirical evidence suggests that tightness is inefficiently low inslumps and inefficiently high in booms, and that an increase in UI raises tightness. Hence, the correction term is positive in slumps but negative inbooms, and optimal UI is indeed countercyclical. Since there remains some uncertainty about the empirical evidence, the paper provides a thorough sensitivity analysis.

8.Changing How Literacy Is Taught: Evidence on Synthetic Phonics

斯蒂芬麦金、桑德拉麦克纳利和玛蒂娜维亚伦戈

Abstract: A significant number of people have very low levels of literacy in many OECD countries. This paper studies a national change in policy and practice in England that refocused the teaching of reading around "synthetic phonics." This was a low-cost intervention that targeted the pedagogy of existing teachers. We evaluate the pilot and first phase of the national roll out. While strong initial effects tend to fade out on average, they persist for those with children with a higher initial propensity to struggle with reading. As a result, this program helped narrow the gap between disadvantage dpupils and other groups.

9.Cash-on-Hand and College Enrollment: Evidence fromPopulation Tax Data and the Earned Income Tax Credit

戴马诺里和尼科尔斯图尔纳

Abstract: We estimate causal effects of cash-on-hand on college enrollment decisions of students from low-income families. Using population-level, administrative datafrom US income tax returns, we exploit variation in tax refunds received in the spring of the high school senior year. The variation in tax refunds results from the kink point between the phase-in and maximum credit portions of the Earned Income Tax Credit schedule. The results suggest tax refunds received in the spring of the high school senior year have meaningful effects on college enrollment.

10.The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence from the DPAD

埃里克奥恩

Abstract: This study estimates the investment, financing, and payout responses to variation in a firm's effective corporate income tax rate in the United States. I exploit quasi-experimental variation created by the Domestic Production Activities Deduction, a corporate tax expenditure created in 2005. A 1 percentage pointreduction in tax rates increases investment by 4.7 percent of installed capital, increases payouts by 0.3 percent of sales, and decreases debt by 5.3percent of total assets. These estimates suggest that lower corporate tax rates and faster accelerated depreciation each stimulate a similar increase in investment, per dollar in lost revenue.